Bigger Turbines, Harder Questions: What Australia’s Next Wave of Wind Means for Risk
Snapshot
- Bigger turbines and faster deployment are helping lower the cost of energy in Australia, but they are also concentrating construction and operational risk in fewer, larger assets.
- The most challenging losses are typically driven by component-level failures and extended downtime, not headline grabbing catastrophic events or extreme weather.
- As Chinese Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) become central to Australia’s wind pipeline, country of origin will be less important than engineering quality, site specific suitability, independent certification and operational track record.
Australia is continuing to invest in alternative energy sources, and wind may be a key area in that transition. Larger turbines, fewer machines and faster deployment are essential to meeting decarbonisation targets while keeping costs down. But as the technology scales, the risk profile of the sector is changing.
Across recent client discussions and market forums, Aon is seeing a clear shift: wind technology is no longer evolving incrementally. Instead, the market is experiencing sharp step changes in turbine size, project scale and exposure concentration. These changes bring opportunity, but they also require careful consideration to assist projects to remain resilient in a volatile and complex environment.
From incremental progress to step change
Over the past 15 years, wind turbines in Australia have increased substantially in size and capacity. Modern onshore wind turbines in Australia are now deploying units with capacities between 6.2 and 8 MW, which will often see blades up to 85 metres in length and hub heights up to 170 metres depending on configuration. The sheer scale of these components will continue to challenge developers when transporting to more remote regions of Australia.
This does not appear to be a simple continuation of past trends. These step changes may materially alter construction risk, operational exposure and loss severity, particularly in a market like Australia, where distance, logistics and grid constraints can amplify the consequences when things go wrong. We are no longer dealing with marginal change; the scale of today’s turbines fundamentally changes how risk behaves over the life of a project.
Bigger turbines concentrate risk
As turbines grow, so too can the impact of a single failure. In offshore wind, average claim size has risen strongly as turbines and projects have scaled up; for example, GCube reports average offshore wind losses increasing from about £1m in 2012 to over £7m in 2021 and explicitly links this to larger turbines and projects. This is not only because components are larger and more expensive, but because outages can last longer and replacement logistics can be more complex.
In Australia, these effects can be magnified. Heavy lift cranes are scarce, transport distances are typically long, and specialist resources are often committed to other projects. When a large turbine goes offline, lost revenue can potentially overtake physical damage as the dominant driver of loss.
This concentration of risk is a defining feature of the current generation of wind assets — and one that should be actively managed.
The real losses are rarely headline events
One of the most important insights Aon is reinforcing with clients is that the biggest losses are not typically caused by catastrophic collapse or extreme weather. Instead, they are driven by component level failures that trigger extended downtime.
Blade damage is a common issue for wind farms, and transport and handling of large turbine components can be particularly challenging for projects in remote parts of Australia. Transformer failures, while less common, represent some of the most severe loss scenarios due to multi year replacement lead times and whole of site outages.
Understanding where losses arise is critical to structuring effective risk transfer and resilience strategies.
Chinese OEMs are now central to Australia’s wind pipeline
Chinese turbine manufacturers are now accounting for a significant share of large scale wind projects entering the Australian market. From Aon’s perspective, this reflects a broader global shift rather than a regional anomaly.
The more useful discussion is no longer about where turbines are manufactured, but about how well their components are engineered, tested and supported over time. Modern wind turbines rely on deeply globalised supply chains, regardless of branding, and the risk conversation has moved on from country of origin to a focus on engineering quality, transparency and long term support.
Three questions Aon encourages clients to ask early
As technology evolves, Aon is increasingly focused on helping clients test assumptions early — before turbines are installed and capital is fully committed. Three areas to consider are:
- Is the turbine independently type certified?
Certification is essential, but it is only a baseline. - Is the turbine genuinely suited to the specific site?
Site specific wind conditions, terrain and fatigue loads should be properly assessed using high quality data. - Is there a credible operating track record?
Real operating hours and transparent fault data can provide confidence that early life issues have been identified and addressed.
Where these elements are aligned, projects are better positioned to innovate and lead with resilience.
Extra testing is becoming a strategic differentiator
In Aon’s observations, a growing number of Australian developers appear to be going beyond minimum certification requirements and demanding additional component and blade testing. While this increases upfront cost, it can potentially significantly reduce the likelihood of severe operational losses later in the asset life.
In Aon’s experience, this level of diligence is increasingly viewed not as conservatism, but as commercial discipline, particularly in large, capital intensive projects.
Key takeaways for Australian decision makers
- Turbine scale can lower the cost of energy but concentrate loss severity and downtime risk.
- Component failures, not extreme events, are typically driving the most challenging losses.
- Chinese OEMs are now integral to Australia’s wind build out, but engineering scrutiny matters more than origin.
- Site specific suitability and real operating data are critical to assist prudent decision making.
- Projects that embed diligence early are typically better positioned to move from resilience to growth.
If you would like to explore how Aon’s Renewables solutions can help you manage the changing risk profile of large scale wind projects, visit our Renewables Insurance and Risk Management page or complete the short contact form to speak with an Aon specialist.
These insights were originally shared at Aon’s 4th Renewable Energy Insights Forum in Sydney in March 2026.
