Snapshot
- New insights on global and regional credit market performance, trade credit insurance placements and claims dynamics.
- Key trends include increasing frequency of COVID-19 related claims, expanding insurer credit limit capacity, and a stabilising pricing environment.
Supply chain disruption, future ‘grey swan’ events, climate change, and with the continued pressure of COVID-19 affecting the wider business landscape, it is more important than ever to remain flexible and adaptable. Aon’s Credit Market Insights report for Q2 2021 explores key market trends and performance, trade credit insurance placements and claims dynamics, with regional and global overviews.
Key themes
- COVID-19 related claims are anticipated to emerge in late 2021 and into 2022 as government support measures taper off. Claims frequency will increase as ‘zombie’ firms fail in the economic recovery and with a higher level of severity losses.
- Insurer credit limit appetite and capacity has expanded during H1 2021 with current risk acceptance rates at 2019 levels for many trade sectors. Certain ‘red’ sectors of transportation and hospitality remain particularly challenging to underwrite.
- The pricing environment has stabilised and the hardening trend experienced in H2 2020 has now moderated in H1 2021 which is linked to the more favourable market conditions.
APAC Q2 market trends
- Broadly, the region is expected to grow in 2021 as optimistic businesses and consumers drive up forecasts which were higher at the end of Q1 than at the beginning. The cycle of optimism has led to a further surge in house prices with growth levels in some areas at 17-year highs.
- Strained trading relationships with China has led many firms to seek more diversified homes for their products.
- The workplace of the future will have fewer full-time on-site workers, leading employers to explore options such as job re-distribution to offshore, lower-cost regimes and acceleration of AI solutions.
- Renewal rates are flattening for profitable business, with most insurers requiring one premium rate increase, rather than consecutive years of increases at renewal.
- Risk appetite has also increased, however insurers are keen to minimise ‘air’ in approved limits, requiring clients to manage credit limit requests to actual needs.
- Capacity is readily available for concentrated risks, eg. consumer electronics and agritrade; whereas for the bunkering, metals and automotive sectors, it is typically more restrictive and more expensive.
