Understanding Geopolitical Risk and Resilience in a Changing World

Former Australian spy chief Major General Paul Symon AO shares his view on the shifting balance of power in the world, the current Australian security environment and how organisations can secure a stronger future despite the risks.

As global power dynamics shift, organisations face an increasingly complex and uncertain landscape. The U.S. presidential election, with concomitant adjustments to foreign policy, adds another layer of unpredictability to global relations already strained by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and escalating conflict in the Middle East. While geographically distant, the repercussions of these wars impact global energy markets and security stability, creating ripple effects worldwide. Closer to home, the Asia-Pacific region is dealing with mounting tensions, particularly over Taiwan and in the South China Sea. Together, these factors expose many organisations to potential risks that can disrupt operations, trade, and even workforce stability. ¹

Former Director-General of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS), Major General Paul Symon, is a seasoned expert in navigating geopolitical challenges and an advocate for robust, proactive resilience strategies to help businesses face an increasingly volatile global environment. With a unique understanding of shifting power dynamics and evolving security risks, Symon argues that organisations should take critical steps to fortify themselves against potential disruptions. ¹

Grey Swans of the Asia-Pacific

Symon believes that there are a number of grey swans at play across APAC – “sparks that can change the dynamic very, very quickly.” He points to Taiwan as one major flashpoint where there is potential for conflict between the U.S. and China – this is not an unimaginable possibility. “The moment any political leader of Taiwan explicitly calls for independence as a sovereign nation… a red line will have been crossed,” he says. A Taiwanese invasion scenario would be “very, very serious for Australia” and, particularly, for the risk insurance sector. Politically, if tensions escalate, the U.S. might have “some pretty big asks of Canberra,” including imposing an export ban on resources like iron ore and lithium, both major Australian exports to China. Symon underscores the need for Australia to “signal that type of willingness” but warns that this requires “thinking ahead of time” and being “ready to bear the economic pain.” He also highlights Australia’s strategic importance due to AUKUS and the QUAD being now “very central to Pentagon thinking.” ¹

Deep-seated historical tensions between China and Japan are another grey swan, as societal animosities continue to influence relations. Furthermore, disputes over the Spratly Islands between the Philippines and China could lead either nation to actions that escalate tension. Symon also highlights the Solomon Islands, where China’s interest in establishing a PLA Navy port would mark a significant shift in security dynamics, positioning China more proximal to Australia and challenging Pacific stability. A misstep in any of these scenarios could alter the economic and security dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region, with profound implications for Australia. ¹

Planning for Uncertainty with Scenario-Based Strategies

With more global turmoil likely, Symon calls for organisations to learn from the way spy agencies like ASIS, M16 and the CIA build resilience in their business: with scenario planning. “Sometimes managing risk is about preparing for unexpected scenarios, the unknown unknowns, and asking how to prepare employees for more difficult times,” Symon says. “It’s worth spending a slice of time thinking about scenarios because, ultimately, it comes down to preparation. It’s the responsibility of leaders to condition people and prepare them for scenarios. It costs us nothing to think about them, to sit down with the staff and just work things through: If this action occurs, what might the reaction be? What might the counter action be? How will this impact us? What should we do about it?” ¹

This proactive approach, he explains, allows businesses to adjust their strategies quickly, keeping one step ahead of possible disruptions. Scenario planning can enable companies to anticipate shifts in trade agreements, the impact of economic sanctions, and even cyber threats, helping leaders make well-informed, strategic decisions.

How to Win the War for Talent

The success of scenario planning also lies in having the best workforce for the role and, as the war for talent continues, Symon maintains that retention and effective people management require a balance between support, vigilance, and open communication Firstly, leaders need to be realistic about potential risks. “Everyone would be wise in a leadership position to at least assume there are going to be some disgruntled people who may wish your organisation harm,” says Symon. “[We] put safeguards in place to our most important proprietary information to make sure that there exist checks and balances so that no one individual can do too much harm.” ¹

Oversight is important, but leadership visibility and a culture where employees feel empowered to communicate openly to their superiors is critical. By maintaining open lines of communication and demonstrating trustworthiness, leaders can inspire loyalty and encourage talented individuals to remain committed. “Young people want to hear from and be inspired by their leaders,” he says. “They want communication, whether it’s in written or oral form; that is, less words but more meaning,” Staying cloistered in an office denies the opportunity for open communication; Symon is an advocate for setting aside time each week to “patrol the ridges; it’s a good time to get out of the office and just walk around.” And instilling a culture of courage to speak up in the workplace and then not condemning people if they do so. “Being able to speak truth to power, being courageous, speaking up and not being condemned for it is something that really, really matters,” Symon adds. ¹

References 

[1] Major General Paul Symon, Aon Insights Series Pacific 2024, 15 October 2024.